![]() ![]() The Effects of exchange rates, oil prices, global risk perceptions and global warming on food pricesĭağdelen, Derya Soytaş, Uğur Department of Business Administration (2012) However, ARDL based error correction models (ECM) indicate that regional factors are not a significant determinant of crude. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach it is found that there is cointegration between crude oil prices, days of forward consumption of OECD crude oil stocks, OPEC quota, OPEC cheat and key variables imported crude oil by OECD. This study analyzes the effect of oil imports by OECD regions on crude oil price by using Kaufmann’s price rule as a benchmark. Güneyligil, Ümmügülsüm Akbostancı Özkazanç, Elif Department of Economics (2013) ĭrivers of the oil price : an empirical analysis of the effect of oil imports by OECD regions Recent assumptions point out that natural gas demand of Turkey will reach 44 billion cubic meters in 2010 with a financial burden of. However, the production is far from covering the demand. Being a developing country, Turkey’s natural gas requirement is increasing rapidly. ![]() They have great impact on issues such as economy, national security, development, competition, and political consistency. Oil and natural gas are the most strategic raw materials to meet the expanding energy requirement in today’s world. Keskin, Hakan Mehmetoğlu, Mustafa Tanju Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering (2007) Review of natural gas discovery and production from conventional resources in Turkey Turkey, as a heavily oil importing country, i. Oil-export/import dependent countries are expected to be more open to impacts arousing from changes in oil prices. Although most of the economies are expected to be affected by the changes of oil prices, the magnitude of the effects may change from country to country. Oil prices have far reaching effects on the economy and financial markets since oil market is one of the most important markets in the world due to its crucial role of oil within economic activity. Öztürk, Derya Ezgi Kestel, Sevtap Ayşe Küçüközmen, Coşkun Department of Financial Mathematics (2014) The Relation between crude oil prices and financial market indicators: a copula approach In this study, comparison of simulation results and observed results from the real life data set is provided in order to make prediction and give discussion on the duration of the maximum drawdown of the oil prices. We have conducted simulation studies for calculating the expected value of the maximum drawdown and expected value of the duration of the maximum drawdown. Fractional Brownian motion process is used for modeling the oil prices since the increments are observed to be dependent. This is done by using filtering methods such as Hodrick-Prescott and Band Pass filter. In order to detect the maximum drawdown, super-cycles which are specified as total of an upward and a downward movement are determined in the data set which is the oil prices collected between the year 19. Maximum drawdown can be defined as the indication of the highest possible market risk in finance. The purpose of this study is to estimate the duration that is the maximum drawdown of highest possible drop in the oil prices. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to analyze fluctuations in oil prices. These fluctuations in oil prices become one of the key indicators in macroeconomics. Sharp decreases and increases in oil prices have been notable in recent years. For example, while lower oil prices could inhibit financial development and spoil economic and political stability, higher oil prices could cause an increase in inflation and a recession in an economy. Changes in the level of oil prices may affect the whole economy at the same time economic developments may affect the oil prices. Oil price is a vital financial aspect directing the economy in the global world. ![]()
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